Friday, August 13, 2004
ELECTION ANALYSIS
The Editors
Beginning today, LB in '04 will run a series of posts analyzing the 2004 election on a region by region and state by state basis.
The regions are as follows:
New England - MA, CT, RI, VT, NH, ME
Mid-Atlantic - NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE, WV, DC
South - VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, TX
Industrial Midwest - MI, OH, IN, KY, IL, WI
Midwest - ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MN, IA, MO
West - MT, ID, WY, CO, NV, UT, NM, AZ
Pacific Coast - AK, HI, WA, OR, CA
NEW ENGLAND
States: 6
Gore: VT, MA, RI, ME, CT
Bush: NH
Electoral Votes: 34
Counties: 63 (Gore- 46 counties, Bush 17)
Projection: Kerry Sweep
No surprises here. New England is Deep Blue territory. A bulwark against the tides of darkness since 1992. A reliable yet tired soldier holding the line against Imperial Republican forces.
New England - 1 inch = 1 inch
Once a toss-up region, New England is now solidly Democratic in national elections. Dukakis carried two out of the six states. Clinton was six-for-six. The least blue state (powder blue) is New Hampshire. Before Bill Clinton, the last Democrat to carry NH was Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 ass-whooping of Barry Goldwater. New Hampshire went Red in 2000. But consider:
More New Hampshirites (New Hampshirens?, New Hampshirians? New Hampshirers?) wanted someone other than Bush in 2000.
Gore - 46.80%
Bush - 48.07%
Nader - 3.9%
In 2000, Bush ran as a moderate Republican, something he can no longer pretend to be. Always fiscally conservative, New Hampshire rarely catered to the Neanderthal Wing of the Republican Party. It rejected Goldwater in both the primary (preferring Henry Cabot Lodge) and the general election. New Hampshire voters are not isolationist, but are reasonably wary of overseas adventures. The Republican primaries may produce some very conservative candidates, but in general this is a state on the Red-Blue bubble and inching towards the blue. It may never be as progressive as Vermont or Massachusetts, but we believe it is trending Democratic on the national level. We think it will happen in 2004. We know it will happen by 2008, unless the Republicans can find and nominate a true moderate Republican.
Consider:
Look at a map. New Hampshire is merely Vermont turned upside down.
Maine
Maine sits in the northeastern corner of the United States, gathering cobwebs. It is rarely dusted. Once the most staunch of Republican states, it has now turned a nice shade of blue. Maine has not voted Republican since 1988.
In 2000, Gore almost captured 50% of the vote, while Nader took 5.7%. That's right! Over 55% of Maine did not want the moderate Texan. We suspect Kerry will take Maine with over 50% of the vote. Maine has also changed its state Motto to, "Where future Presidents Come to Drink and Drive."
Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island & Vermont
Here, the only place Bush broke 40% was in Vermont where he garnered 40.70%, with Nader taking 6.92%. All four states are Deep Blue and Kerry will not have to visit any of them.
Trends
Al Gore did significantly better than Michael Dukakis in New England, including in Massachusetts. The changes are listed below, in percentages. The number indicates the difference between the Dukakis vote in 1988 and the Gore vote.
MA +4
CT +9
RI +5
VT +2
ME +5
NH +10
The 1992 vote is difficult to analyze due to the threeway vote. Perot did quite well in New Englnd in 1992. In 1996, Clinton carried every state by a majority except NH. He carried NH with over 49.6% of the votes, narrowly missing a majority.
Conclusion
The national media ignores how weak the Republicans are in this region. We receive a constant bombardment of how Republican the South and Midwest is, but not how Democratic New England has become. Yes, New England only has 34 Electoral Votes. However that is more than Florida and it is more than ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT and WY combined. And it is more like a state than a region. There are few media markets and a buy on those markets can blanket the entire region. Travel is easy and a candidate could visit all six states in one or two days. If Democrats ignored a state or region with 34 Electoral votes, the headline would be, 'Democrats abandon entire region! New England is a vital part of the Democratic Coalition. If NH can be added as a sure thing to that coalition, the Democrats will have, for all practical purposes, a state that is third in Electoral Votes, behind only CA and TX. Lets hear it for New England.
Next week, the Mid-Atlantic states.
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The Editors
Beginning today, LB in '04 will run a series of posts analyzing the 2004 election on a region by region and state by state basis.
The regions are as follows:
New England - MA, CT, RI, VT, NH, ME
Mid-Atlantic - NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE, WV, DC
South - VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, TX
Industrial Midwest - MI, OH, IN, KY, IL, WI
Midwest - ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MN, IA, MO
West - MT, ID, WY, CO, NV, UT, NM, AZ
Pacific Coast - AK, HI, WA, OR, CA
NEW ENGLAND
States: 6
Gore: VT, MA, RI, ME, CT
Bush: NH
Electoral Votes: 34
Counties: 63 (Gore- 46 counties, Bush 17)
Projection: Kerry Sweep
No surprises here. New England is Deep Blue territory. A bulwark against the tides of darkness since 1992. A reliable yet tired soldier holding the line against Imperial Republican forces.
More New Hampshirites (New Hampshirens?, New Hampshirians? New Hampshirers?) wanted someone other than Bush in 2000.
Gore - 46.80%
Bush - 48.07%
Nader - 3.9%
In 2000, Bush ran as a moderate Republican, something he can no longer pretend to be. Always fiscally conservative, New Hampshire rarely catered to the Neanderthal Wing of the Republican Party. It rejected Goldwater in both the primary (preferring Henry Cabot Lodge) and the general election. New Hampshire voters are not isolationist, but are reasonably wary of overseas adventures. The Republican primaries may produce some very conservative candidates, but in general this is a state on the Red-Blue bubble and inching towards the blue. It may never be as progressive as Vermont or Massachusetts, but we believe it is trending Democratic on the national level. We think it will happen in 2004. We know it will happen by 2008, unless the Republicans can find and nominate a true moderate Republican.
Consider:
Look at a map. New Hampshire is merely Vermont turned upside down.
Maine
Maine sits in the northeastern corner of the United States, gathering cobwebs. It is rarely dusted. Once the most staunch of Republican states, it has now turned a nice shade of blue. Maine has not voted Republican since 1988.
In 2000, Gore almost captured 50% of the vote, while Nader took 5.7%. That's right! Over 55% of Maine did not want the moderate Texan. We suspect Kerry will take Maine with over 50% of the vote. Maine has also changed its state Motto to, "Where future Presidents Come to Drink and Drive."
Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island & Vermont
Here, the only place Bush broke 40% was in Vermont where he garnered 40.70%, with Nader taking 6.92%. All four states are Deep Blue and Kerry will not have to visit any of them.
Trends
Al Gore did significantly better than Michael Dukakis in New England, including in Massachusetts. The changes are listed below, in percentages. The number indicates the difference between the Dukakis vote in 1988 and the Gore vote.
MA +4
CT +9
RI +5
VT +2
ME +5
NH +10
The 1992 vote is difficult to analyze due to the threeway vote. Perot did quite well in New Englnd in 1992. In 1996, Clinton carried every state by a majority except NH. He carried NH with over 49.6% of the votes, narrowly missing a majority.
Conclusion
The national media ignores how weak the Republicans are in this region. We receive a constant bombardment of how Republican the South and Midwest is, but not how Democratic New England has become. Yes, New England only has 34 Electoral Votes. However that is more than Florida and it is more than ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT and WY combined. And it is more like a state than a region. There are few media markets and a buy on those markets can blanket the entire region. Travel is easy and a candidate could visit all six states in one or two days. If Democrats ignored a state or region with 34 Electoral votes, the headline would be, 'Democrats abandon entire region! New England is a vital part of the Democratic Coalition. If NH can be added as a sure thing to that coalition, the Democrats will have, for all practical purposes, a state that is third in Electoral Votes, behind only CA and TX. Lets hear it for New England.
Next week, the Mid-Atlantic states.
