Tuesday, August 17, 2004
The Editors
We now head west and there are no surprises here. When entering New York State a deep, dark blue haze is immediately evident. In more than one instance, people with Bush-Cheney signs on their lawns voted for Gore. We are pleased to present....
The MID-ATLANTIC STATES
States: 6 NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE, WV
Gore: NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE
Bush: WV
Electoral Votes: 88
Counties: Too many to count
Projection: Kerry Sweep (almost).
The Mid-Atlantic states are the heart of any Democratic victory, just as California is the spine and Iowa the gall bladder. This is especially true when the candidate is not from Dixie. Kennedy and Humphrey did well here, Dukakis fell flat. Clinton, being Clinton, swept the region in '92 and '96.
New York, New Jersey
New York, home of the left-wing, Jewish, Commie-Pinko, pornographer voter, and Stockton, is ridiculously Democratic in national elections. Indeed, Republicans can only capture NY in landslide years such as '72 and '84 or when the Democratic candidate has been severely damaged (Carter in '80). New York resoundly rejected Bush, handing him only 35% of the vote. Some may argue that New York City tilts so far Democratic that Republicans don't stand a chance despite support upstate. This may have been true once. In '88 Dukakis* carried New York with 51% of the vote. He carried New York City and seven upstate counties. In 2000, Gore carried the Empire State with 60% of the vote, taking twenty upstate counties and Long Island (In 1996, Clinton carried 51 of the states 62 counties). We would not be surprised if Bush failed to reach his 2000 total in 2004.
New Jersey was once a true toss-up state, going for Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Reagan, Clinton, Clinton and Gore. Now, it must be considered a solid Blue state. The percentage of the New Jersy vote given the Democratic candidate in presidential elections has increased in each election year since 1980 - even when Perot ran.
Dukakis lost here in '88, getting only 42% of the vote (carrying only exits 23 and 24 off the turnpike). Gore won with a landslide 56% to Bush's 40%. New Jersey travel tip: When travelling through New Jersey by car, a friend's flatulence can actually make the state smell better.
Maryland & Delaware
Maryland is considered a Democratic state. Dukakis lost by 2% points, but twelve years later, Gore carried it with 56%, with Bush barely breaking 40%. Like New Jersey, the percentage of the vote going to the Democratic presidential candidate has increased in each election year since 1984. And also like New Jersey, Gore bitch-slapped Bush 56% to 40% in 2000. Delaware, a traditional swing state, now appears to be solid blue. The percentage of the vote going to the Democratic presidential candidate has been increasing since 1984 and Bush was kept under 43% in 2000. There is no reason Kerry should not easily take Delaware.
Pennsylvania
A classic battleground state that we believe is slowly tilting towards the Democrats. Gore was consistently ahead in the polls here in 2000 and carried the Keystone state with 50% to Bush's 46%. Dukakis, a weak candidate by any measure, lost the state by only 2%. A Democratic administration in Harrisburg will also help Kerry. A Democratic presidential candidate may not achieve a victory with 55%, but Kerry should and must win Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania slips away to Bush, Kerry will not win the election. Factoid: Pennsylvania was named for Penn of Penn & Teller fame.
West Virginia
Once part of Virginia, West Virginia and Virginia broke up when the later started dating Yoko Ono. West Virginia was one of the biggest disappointments in 2000. Once, one of the most reliable Democratic states, it is the only state Dukakis won that Gore failed to carry. It wasn't even close. Gore could only muster 45% of the vote in a state that went to Carter in 1980. A bad showing for a Democrat. It also cost the election.
Theories abound as to why West Virgina abandonded Gore. Some experts say it was the perception that Gore would hurt the coal industry. Others say that Bush gained ground here on cultural issues important to West Virginia (remember Gore's faux pas in suggesting we try to eliminate Black Lung Disease?). One expert claims it was all over a parking spot in Wheeling. Recent history indicates that 2000 was a freak occurance - neither Dole nor Bush Senior in 92 broke 37%. We'll see if 2000 was a siesmic shift in party alignment or an abberation. We're split on this one. Therefore, we would not be surprised if it were an abberation and Kerry squeeks by with 51%, or if it follows Tennessee and Kentucky and Bush wins by a solid margin. One thing is likely: there will be a lot of "told ya so" going on at the editorial table after the election.
Trends (Changes in Democratic voting between 1988 and 2000)
NY - +9
NJ - +14
PA - +2
MD - +8
DE - +11
WV - -7
Conclusion
The Mid-Atlantic states should be a fairly easy ride for Kerry with the exception of West Virginia - and he can't take Pennsylvania for granted. The Republicans will fight hard for Pennsylvania (21 EC Votes) and when the election is this close, will work hard to hang on to West Virginia. At the worst, Kerry should clear the region with 83 out of 88 Electoral Votes (all but West Virginia) and a healthy percentage of the popular vote.
Next week, fasten your seatbelts, load your guns and get your passports ready, for we head into The South.
* In analyzing the election, the Editors choose to primarily look at the changes between the 1988 election and the 2000 election. There is an inherent difficulty in analyzing Bill Clinton's election victories. Those election were infected with Perotitis (the Perot vote), making trend spotting difficult. Experts still disagree how Perot may or may not have affected the '92 and '96 elections. Our best guess is that Perot most likely hurt Clinton in '92 and Dole in '96. The Perot vote seemed to be an anti-incumbent vote but again, that is only our best guess. Still, it is difficult to believe that Clinton would have ever won Arizona without the Perot vote.
