Wednesday, April 28, 2004
THE PA PRIMARY
By Stockton and Tweed
Now that the dust has settled, and moderate Republican incumbent Arlen Specter has sealed a victory, albeit by a razor-thin margin, over Wingnut, Bend Over & Give It Toomey, we now reflect on the consequences of the results. Pundits will abuse this story for a few days of "news and analysis," and we'll hear a lot of talk about what this means for the presidential election. Most of it will be bullshit. Here's the straight skinny:
If Wingnut had won, PA would have been an easier win for Kerry in 04. PA democrats outnumber republicans, and the state went decidedly for Gore in 2000. PA is a solid moderate state. With Toomey on the ballot, Bush would look less and less like the moderate he pretends to be (and needs to be to win).
Here is the state of affairs now: Specter is a tried and true trusted Senator and will help Bush's efforts in the state. Countering that, however, are the following:
1. PA now has a democratic governor. The party machine will come out strong for Kerry in PA, giving Kerry an advantage Gore did not have. This is particularly crucial because of the clear democratic lean of the state.
2. Kerry and Bush are tied in PA polling. This is huge for Kerry. Toomey and Specter have been campaigning on a theme of "who is best for Bush." Bush ads have saturated the airwaves and the Dauphin is still not outpolling Kerry - huge.
3. Pennsylvania has never demonstrated real self-destructive behavior, the likes of which are seen in our poorest states, MS and AL.
4. Pennsylvania voters value diversity (see comments below).
When voters were asked about the primary, one issue was decisive: diversity. Said one Scranton Republican, "We have Santorum for the douchebags, now we'll have Specter for the rest of us."
A Philadelphia resident said, "At least now there's a chance we can sodomize animals. With Toomey, that right may have been taking away from us."
UPDATE: Toomey was last seen scouring his garbage cans looking for his copy of the United States Constitution. "We'll see what the Supreme Court has to say about this!"
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By Stockton and Tweed
Now that the dust has settled, and moderate Republican incumbent Arlen Specter has sealed a victory, albeit by a razor-thin margin, over Wingnut, Bend Over & Give It Toomey, we now reflect on the consequences of the results. Pundits will abuse this story for a few days of "news and analysis," and we'll hear a lot of talk about what this means for the presidential election. Most of it will be bullshit. Here's the straight skinny:
If Wingnut had won, PA would have been an easier win for Kerry in 04. PA democrats outnumber republicans, and the state went decidedly for Gore in 2000. PA is a solid moderate state. With Toomey on the ballot, Bush would look less and less like the moderate he pretends to be (and needs to be to win).
Here is the state of affairs now: Specter is a tried and true trusted Senator and will help Bush's efforts in the state. Countering that, however, are the following:
1. PA now has a democratic governor. The party machine will come out strong for Kerry in PA, giving Kerry an advantage Gore did not have. This is particularly crucial because of the clear democratic lean of the state.
2. Kerry and Bush are tied in PA polling. This is huge for Kerry. Toomey and Specter have been campaigning on a theme of "who is best for Bush." Bush ads have saturated the airwaves and the Dauphin is still not outpolling Kerry - huge.
3. Pennsylvania has never demonstrated real self-destructive behavior, the likes of which are seen in our poorest states, MS and AL.
4. Pennsylvania voters value diversity (see comments below).
When voters were asked about the primary, one issue was decisive: diversity. Said one Scranton Republican, "We have Santorum for the douchebags, now we'll have Specter for the rest of us."
A Philadelphia resident said, "At least now there's a chance we can sodomize animals. With Toomey, that right may have been taking away from us."
UPDATE: Toomey was last seen scouring his garbage cans looking for his copy of the United States Constitution. "We'll see what the Supreme Court has to say about this!"
