Wednesday, August 25, 2004
ELECTION ANALYSIS PART III - THE SOUTH
Editors
Drop yer linen and start a-grinnin; 'cause Colonel Stockton and Colonel Tweed are about to take you away to Dixie land - the land that will rise again. Lock and load and get ready for the red-shift as we enter . . .
The South
States: 10 VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, TX
Gore: FL (well, sort of)
Bush: VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, TX & FL (well, sort of)
Electoral Votes: 153
Counties: darn near fah huhred, we reckon, with a parish or two thrown in for good measure
Projection: Bush sweep (almost)
Who can forget those crazy confederates - what with their talk of seccession and all? The instigators of the War of Northern Agression used to be virulently anti-republican. How could any self-respecting southerner vote for the party that freed the slaves!?! FDR won over 98% of the vote in South Carolina in 1932. But then the democratic party took up the cause of civil rights, Strom Thurmond took up the cause of "state's rights," Wallace went all nutty, Nixon swooped in and Reagan sealed the deal. No democrat has won the heart of the Confederacy since 1956, except for that Georgian peanut farmer. Clinton did a good job, but at its core, the land of Dixie is as red as the blood of the men of Pickets division.
Virginia and North Carolina
With the exception of Florida and Arkansas, these may be the Confederate states of the lightest shade of red. But don't get your hopes up too much. The last time VA went Democrat, it voted for LBJ, and while NC supported Carter in 76', it abandoned him in 80'. Gore managed just over 44% in VA and just over 43% in NC, a step up from Dukakas' 39% and 41% twelve years earlier. While VA has generally seen increases in the percentage of the vote going democratic over the past 20 years, NC has not.
Virginia democrats are making a comeback, thanks to Tweed. Gov. Mark Warner easily won election in 2001 with a pledge of fiscal conservativism and social moderation. Virginians, unlike their planter class forefathers, generally like fiscal conservativism, but no longer own slaves. And the anti-tax message has been wearing thin with many Virginians, as basic government services have been cut to support massive tax cuts. In addition, many polls are putting VA in the toss-up or barely Bush column, and Kerry is spending money and time there. Does this mean its going Kerry? Probably not. But it could be the first indication of gradual errosion in republican dominance. There is a tinge of purple in this red state. Factoid: Virginia's relationship with Kentucky and Tennessee has always been strained because the sharp, western portion of Virgina keeps poking into Kentucky and the Volunteer State.
South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi
This swath of the South is Maroon. Deep, dark, blood red. We're not even sure if the Democratic Party is legal in many of these states.
South Carolina hasn't voted Democratic since Henry II elevated Thomas Becket to Archbishop of Canterbury. Papa Bush defeated Dukakis with 61.5% of the vote. Dukakis carried 12 counties. Gore did marginally better with 40.9%. With tensions heating up in the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Carolina, it's hard to see Kerry getting over 40-42% here.
Georgia has 5,176 counties. We counted them. In '88, Papa Bush won with 59.75% to Dukakis' 39.5%. Dukakis only received 39.5% more of the vote than I did and I wasn't even running. Again, Gore did marginally better, capturing 42.9% to the Dauphin's 54.6%. Even if Kerry can improve a point or two on Gore, it's still a landslide. Too bad. Georgia is a huge disappointment. LB in '04 once had high hopes for the Empire State of the South: Jimmy Carter, Sam Nunn, Max Cleland. Such promise. On the bright side, Dukakis carried 24 counties and Gore was able to raise that tally to 34. The movement is slight, and in the right direction, but it is painstakingly slow.
Alabama and Mississippi squat in the heart of Dixie like two drunk rednecks taking a dump in the woods. They are redder than red. Dad won these with 59% to 39% for the Massachusetts Titan. Bush the Lesser did about the same, with 56% and 57% respectively. Gore improved over Dukakis in each state by approximately.....1%. Does anyone remember those heady days when Deaniacs proclaimed AL and MS were 'in play'?
Some have said that if the African American population voted these states would be solidly democratic. And it is true that there are staunchly democratic counties in these bastions of rightwingery. All that being said, we doubt these states will turn anytime that could conceivably be dubbed as "soon." Georgia is, arguably, an exception. Atlanta boasts of being the new south and it is more progressive than many other southern cities. But Georgia's flirtation with reason (1992), seems to have been short-lived. We're rooting for our friends down there, but don't expect anything close to victory in November.
Florida
Florida dangles from the United States like John Holmes after a money shot. A fast growing state, Florida is one of the two most important battleground states. Florida's mixture of good old boys, retirees, military personel, Cubans (people, not cigars), professionals and high-tech workers makes it unique. The younger Bush the Younger won reelection here pretty easily, but his heavy-handed tactics to suppress minority voting have the democrats primed and ready to go. Sadly, the voting process in Florida is about as reliable as a 1975 Chevy Vega. If the election comes down to Florida, and Florida comes down to a few hundred votes, don't expect the lawsuits to be simply about recounts. Instead, expect accusations of voter fraud on both sides, and world-wide laughing as we show banana republics how it should be done. In Florida lies the potential to destroy the fragile faith Americans have in their democracy. If it comes down to Florida, its bad for the country.
Texas
Texas is big and full of rednecks, oil, barbecue and scorpians. It is also home to Tom Delay. Bush wins in a landslide here. Factoid: Texas leads the world in selling 'Don't Mess with Texes' T-Shirts and bumperstickers.
Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana
Arkansas holds a faint glimmer of hope. In '88, Bush won with 56%. His son could only muster 51%. Gore improved over Dukakis by 3.8% points. Dukakis carried 23 counties, Gore 32 counties. Still, there is a 5 point spread between George and Al that Kerry probably won't overcome.
Tennessee wouldn't vote to put a Tennessean in the White House. It did give the 2000 Democratic nominee 47%. An improvement over '88 when Dukakis got 41.5% Still, it's hard to see a Massachusetts Senator doing better than a Vice-President from Tennessee. On the other hand, some have said that bastions of democratic voters did not vote in 2000 because there were no local elections getting them out the door. This seems odd to us.
The '88 and 2000 vote in Louisiana (pronounced Lee-Zee-Ana or Lewis and Anna or Wheesey-Ana) was a wash. The Republican vote went down by about 2% and the Democratic vote remained at 44%. Too bad. Clinton took the state both times and in '96, by a majority of the vote.
Conclusion
While there may be glimmers of change in some of the south, overall it is a reliably red portion of the country (except for Florida). If Bush falters (unlikely), Kerry turns into the reincarnation of JFK (unlikely), the economy does not pick up or the war does not stabilize, Kerry could pick up Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee in addition to Florida. Don't expect it. Still, no region of the country should be completely written-off by any candidate. Time and money spent here by Bush is time and money not spent in Ohio and Missouri.
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Editors
Drop yer linen and start a-grinnin; 'cause Colonel Stockton and Colonel Tweed are about to take you away to Dixie land - the land that will rise again. Lock and load and get ready for the red-shift as we enter . . .
The South
States: 10 VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, TX
Gore: FL (well, sort of)
Bush: VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, TX & FL (well, sort of)
Electoral Votes: 153
Counties: darn near fah huhred, we reckon, with a parish or two thrown in for good measure
Projection: Bush sweep (almost)
Who can forget those crazy confederates - what with their talk of seccession and all? The instigators of the War of Northern Agression used to be virulently anti-republican. How could any self-respecting southerner vote for the party that freed the slaves!?! FDR won over 98% of the vote in South Carolina in 1932. But then the democratic party took up the cause of civil rights, Strom Thurmond took up the cause of "state's rights," Wallace went all nutty, Nixon swooped in and Reagan sealed the deal. No democrat has won the heart of the Confederacy since 1956, except for that Georgian peanut farmer. Clinton did a good job, but at its core, the land of Dixie is as red as the blood of the men of Pickets division.
Virginia and North Carolina
With the exception of Florida and Arkansas, these may be the Confederate states of the lightest shade of red. But don't get your hopes up too much. The last time VA went Democrat, it voted for LBJ, and while NC supported Carter in 76', it abandoned him in 80'. Gore managed just over 44% in VA and just over 43% in NC, a step up from Dukakas' 39% and 41% twelve years earlier. While VA has generally seen increases in the percentage of the vote going democratic over the past 20 years, NC has not.
Virginia democrats are making a comeback, thanks to Tweed. Gov. Mark Warner easily won election in 2001 with a pledge of fiscal conservativism and social moderation. Virginians, unlike their planter class forefathers, generally like fiscal conservativism, but no longer own slaves. And the anti-tax message has been wearing thin with many Virginians, as basic government services have been cut to support massive tax cuts. In addition, many polls are putting VA in the toss-up or barely Bush column, and Kerry is spending money and time there. Does this mean its going Kerry? Probably not. But it could be the first indication of gradual errosion in republican dominance. There is a tinge of purple in this red state. Factoid: Virginia's relationship with Kentucky and Tennessee has always been strained because the sharp, western portion of Virgina keeps poking into Kentucky and the Volunteer State.
South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi
This swath of the South is Maroon. Deep, dark, blood red. We're not even sure if the Democratic Party is legal in many of these states.
South Carolina hasn't voted Democratic since Henry II elevated Thomas Becket to Archbishop of Canterbury. Papa Bush defeated Dukakis with 61.5% of the vote. Dukakis carried 12 counties. Gore did marginally better with 40.9%. With tensions heating up in the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Carolina, it's hard to see Kerry getting over 40-42% here.
Georgia has 5,176 counties. We counted them. In '88, Papa Bush won with 59.75% to Dukakis' 39.5%. Dukakis only received 39.5% more of the vote than I did and I wasn't even running. Again, Gore did marginally better, capturing 42.9% to the Dauphin's 54.6%. Even if Kerry can improve a point or two on Gore, it's still a landslide. Too bad. Georgia is a huge disappointment. LB in '04 once had high hopes for the Empire State of the South: Jimmy Carter, Sam Nunn, Max Cleland. Such promise. On the bright side, Dukakis carried 24 counties and Gore was able to raise that tally to 34. The movement is slight, and in the right direction, but it is painstakingly slow.
Alabama and Mississippi squat in the heart of Dixie like two drunk rednecks taking a dump in the woods. They are redder than red. Dad won these with 59% to 39% for the Massachusetts Titan. Bush the Lesser did about the same, with 56% and 57% respectively. Gore improved over Dukakis in each state by approximately.....1%. Does anyone remember those heady days when Deaniacs proclaimed AL and MS were 'in play'?
Some have said that if the African American population voted these states would be solidly democratic. And it is true that there are staunchly democratic counties in these bastions of rightwingery. All that being said, we doubt these states will turn anytime that could conceivably be dubbed as "soon." Georgia is, arguably, an exception. Atlanta boasts of being the new south and it is more progressive than many other southern cities. But Georgia's flirtation with reason (1992), seems to have been short-lived. We're rooting for our friends down there, but don't expect anything close to victory in November.
Florida
Florida dangles from the United States like John Holmes after a money shot. A fast growing state, Florida is one of the two most important battleground states. Florida's mixture of good old boys, retirees, military personel, Cubans (people, not cigars), professionals and high-tech workers makes it unique. The younger Bush the Younger won reelection here pretty easily, but his heavy-handed tactics to suppress minority voting have the democrats primed and ready to go. Sadly, the voting process in Florida is about as reliable as a 1975 Chevy Vega. If the election comes down to Florida, and Florida comes down to a few hundred votes, don't expect the lawsuits to be simply about recounts. Instead, expect accusations of voter fraud on both sides, and world-wide laughing as we show banana republics how it should be done. In Florida lies the potential to destroy the fragile faith Americans have in their democracy. If it comes down to Florida, its bad for the country.
Texas
Texas is big and full of rednecks, oil, barbecue and scorpians. It is also home to Tom Delay. Bush wins in a landslide here. Factoid: Texas leads the world in selling 'Don't Mess with Texes' T-Shirts and bumperstickers.
Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana
Arkansas holds a faint glimmer of hope. In '88, Bush won with 56%. His son could only muster 51%. Gore improved over Dukakis by 3.8% points. Dukakis carried 23 counties, Gore 32 counties. Still, there is a 5 point spread between George and Al that Kerry probably won't overcome.
Tennessee wouldn't vote to put a Tennessean in the White House. It did give the 2000 Democratic nominee 47%. An improvement over '88 when Dukakis got 41.5% Still, it's hard to see a Massachusetts Senator doing better than a Vice-President from Tennessee. On the other hand, some have said that bastions of democratic voters did not vote in 2000 because there were no local elections getting them out the door. This seems odd to us.
The '88 and 2000 vote in Louisiana (pronounced Lee-Zee-Ana or Lewis and Anna or Wheesey-Ana) was a wash. The Republican vote went down by about 2% and the Democratic vote remained at 44%. Too bad. Clinton took the state both times and in '96, by a majority of the vote.
Conclusion
While there may be glimmers of change in some of the south, overall it is a reliably red portion of the country (except for Florida). If Bush falters (unlikely), Kerry turns into the reincarnation of JFK (unlikely), the economy does not pick up or the war does not stabilize, Kerry could pick up Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee in addition to Florida. Don't expect it. Still, no region of the country should be completely written-off by any candidate. Time and money spent here by Bush is time and money not spent in Ohio and Missouri.
