Tuesday, August 31, 2004
ELECTION ANALYSIS - PART IV - THE INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST
Editors
Update your tetanus shots because we're heading for the Rust Belt. This may be the most important region for Mistah Kerry. If he can carry the Gore states and Ohio, game over. If he can't carry Ohio he's still alive but if Wisconsin falls, he's deep in the doo-doo.
States: 6 - OH, IN, KY, IL, MI, WI
Bush 2000: KY, OH, IN
Gore 2000: MI, IL, WI
Counties: Who cares
Electoral Votes: 87 (in 1960 the region had 107 Electoral Votes)
Ohio
Ohio, gate way to Indiana, Jewel of the Upper Midwest, a riddle wrapped in a tortilla. Ohio has never been Democratic territory, despite Clinton's '92 and '96 victory. Conversely, things are not generally out of reach for Democrats. It has always leaned Republican but, never like its neighbor to the west, Indiana.
After pulling ads weeks before the election, Gore still only lost by 3.5%, keeping Bush to under 50%. Poppa Bush soundly defeated Dukakis here by 11 points, 55% to 44%. Gore takes a lot of criticism from Democrats, some of it deserved. However, Gore's percentages in Ohio were better than Clinton's in '92. In 1996, Clinton bettered Gore's results by just 1%.
Also, Ohio Republicans are traditionalists - they like low taxes, but they hate deficits. This is a state where responsibility means a lot, and Bush's deficits play about as well in Cleveland as do the Kansas City Royals. And Ohioans (Ohians? Ohios?) are squeamish when it comes to legislating too much morality.
Finally, the economy has tanked in Ohio and if he runs a good campaign, Kerry can win here. Still, it is an uphill fight. The hill's not steep, but it exists. Let's hope Kerry does better than Pickett.
Indiana & Kentucky
Anyone who thinks Kerry will be competitive in these states should share whatever they're smoking. We'd like to have a few bags of that stuff. Indiana is simply a staunchly Republican state. It doesn't matter if it's a moderate type (relatively speaking) like Ford or a Reagan or Bush. The Republicans own Indiana. Gore received 41% in a close election. Dukakis received 39.6%. Even Clinton never approached a victory here. Forget it and move on. Factoid: Indiana may change its name to Native Americana.
Kentucky is also out of reach. Dukakis lost with 43.88% of the vote, carrying 36 counties. Gore lost with 41.37% of the votes, carrying 15 counties. Clinton won Kentucky twice, never with a majority of the vote and indeed, his margin went down in 1996. Kentucky is like a hanging curve ball to Barry Bonds - going, going, gone.
Illinois (pronounced Ill-E-Noy not Ill-E-Noise)
This is a state the Democrats should really study. Once a real toss-up, battleground, it now appears to be one of the most solid of Democratic states, almost overnight. It went Democratic in '60 and '64, fell to the Republicans from 1968-1988 and then went Democratic from 1992-2000. It appears poised to hand Kerry another Democratic victory without the candidate needing to break a sweat. Dukakis did better here than nationally, with 48.6% to Bush's 50.69%. Gore opened a can of Momma Whoop-Ass and defeated the Dauphin by 12% points. Gore's victory was even a slight improvement over Clinton's '96 trouncing of Dole.
Michigan
Michigan should emerge as a solid Democratic state. Polls show it closer than one would expect but Kerry should open a solid lead well before the election. This is another state with a declining Republican vote. Dad won 53.5% in '88 with Dukakis taking 45.67%. Gore carried Michigan handily by a 5 point spread, 51% to 46%. In 1996, Clinton did marginally better than Gore. Bush is really fighting hard for Michigan and has pledged to reunite Michigan's Lower Peninsula with the Upper Peninsula by filling in Lake Michigan. Factoid: Michigan is an Algonquin word meaning 'land shaped like a mitten'.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is becoming increasingly worrisome for Democrats but the cause of the problem is yet to be defined. We believe it has something to do with increased cheese production in California. Dukakis actually won the state with 51% to Senior's 47.8%. Gore narrowly won, 47.83% to 47.63%.
What is the problem with such a staunchly progressive state? Is it trending right? Or did Nader undercut Gore's margin? Consider: the 2000 election in Wisconsin was extremely tight. However, Dubya only captured .03% more votes than Daddy. Nader garnered 3.62% of the vote in 2000. Is it a stretch to say that Gore would have taken at least half of Nader's vote, giving him a slightly more comfortable margin? We'll find out in November.
Trends
OH +2.46
IN +1.5 (irrelevant)
KY -2.5
IL + 12
MI + 6
WI - 4
Conclusion
What we have in the Industrial Midwest is a battleground region that isn't much of a battleground region. Kerry should easily take MI and IL, Bush IN, KY. That leaves two states, WI and OH that are the actual battleground. If it's a replay of 2000, the EC votes will be split 48 for Kerry, 39 Bush.
One last observation. We grow tired of the media repeating the misnomer that Democrats win the coasts and Republicans win the interior. Where the fuck are IL, MI, WI, IA, MN? Have they suddenly moved east or west? In 2000, Gore showed strength in just about every region. He massacred Bush in the Northeast, almost won (or won) Florida, split the Industrial Midwest (winning more Electoral College Votes than Bush in that region) showed some strength in NM and all but swept the Pacific Coast. That's a national party, baby.
Democrats or Republicans? We'll Know in November.
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Editors
Update your tetanus shots because we're heading for the Rust Belt. This may be the most important region for Mistah Kerry. If he can carry the Gore states and Ohio, game over. If he can't carry Ohio he's still alive but if Wisconsin falls, he's deep in the doo-doo.
States: 6 - OH, IN, KY, IL, MI, WI
Bush 2000: KY, OH, IN
Gore 2000: MI, IL, WI
Counties: Who cares
Electoral Votes: 87 (in 1960 the region had 107 Electoral Votes)
Ohio
Ohio, gate way to Indiana, Jewel of the Upper Midwest, a riddle wrapped in a tortilla. Ohio has never been Democratic territory, despite Clinton's '92 and '96 victory. Conversely, things are not generally out of reach for Democrats. It has always leaned Republican but, never like its neighbor to the west, Indiana.
After pulling ads weeks before the election, Gore still only lost by 3.5%, keeping Bush to under 50%. Poppa Bush soundly defeated Dukakis here by 11 points, 55% to 44%. Gore takes a lot of criticism from Democrats, some of it deserved. However, Gore's percentages in Ohio were better than Clinton's in '92. In 1996, Clinton bettered Gore's results by just 1%.
Also, Ohio Republicans are traditionalists - they like low taxes, but they hate deficits. This is a state where responsibility means a lot, and Bush's deficits play about as well in Cleveland as do the Kansas City Royals. And Ohioans (Ohians? Ohios?) are squeamish when it comes to legislating too much morality.
Finally, the economy has tanked in Ohio and if he runs a good campaign, Kerry can win here. Still, it is an uphill fight. The hill's not steep, but it exists. Let's hope Kerry does better than Pickett.
Indiana & Kentucky
Anyone who thinks Kerry will be competitive in these states should share whatever they're smoking. We'd like to have a few bags of that stuff. Indiana is simply a staunchly Republican state. It doesn't matter if it's a moderate type (relatively speaking) like Ford or a Reagan or Bush. The Republicans own Indiana. Gore received 41% in a close election. Dukakis received 39.6%. Even Clinton never approached a victory here. Forget it and move on. Factoid: Indiana may change its name to Native Americana.
Kentucky is also out of reach. Dukakis lost with 43.88% of the vote, carrying 36 counties. Gore lost with 41.37% of the votes, carrying 15 counties. Clinton won Kentucky twice, never with a majority of the vote and indeed, his margin went down in 1996. Kentucky is like a hanging curve ball to Barry Bonds - going, going, gone.
Illinois (pronounced Ill-E-Noy not Ill-E-Noise)
This is a state the Democrats should really study. Once a real toss-up, battleground, it now appears to be one of the most solid of Democratic states, almost overnight. It went Democratic in '60 and '64, fell to the Republicans from 1968-1988 and then went Democratic from 1992-2000. It appears poised to hand Kerry another Democratic victory without the candidate needing to break a sweat. Dukakis did better here than nationally, with 48.6% to Bush's 50.69%. Gore opened a can of Momma Whoop-Ass and defeated the Dauphin by 12% points. Gore's victory was even a slight improvement over Clinton's '96 trouncing of Dole.
Michigan
Michigan should emerge as a solid Democratic state. Polls show it closer than one would expect but Kerry should open a solid lead well before the election. This is another state with a declining Republican vote. Dad won 53.5% in '88 with Dukakis taking 45.67%. Gore carried Michigan handily by a 5 point spread, 51% to 46%. In 1996, Clinton did marginally better than Gore. Bush is really fighting hard for Michigan and has pledged to reunite Michigan's Lower Peninsula with the Upper Peninsula by filling in Lake Michigan. Factoid: Michigan is an Algonquin word meaning 'land shaped like a mitten'.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is becoming increasingly worrisome for Democrats but the cause of the problem is yet to be defined. We believe it has something to do with increased cheese production in California. Dukakis actually won the state with 51% to Senior's 47.8%. Gore narrowly won, 47.83% to 47.63%.
What is the problem with such a staunchly progressive state? Is it trending right? Or did Nader undercut Gore's margin? Consider: the 2000 election in Wisconsin was extremely tight. However, Dubya only captured .03% more votes than Daddy. Nader garnered 3.62% of the vote in 2000. Is it a stretch to say that Gore would have taken at least half of Nader's vote, giving him a slightly more comfortable margin? We'll find out in November.
Trends
OH +2.46
IN +1.5 (irrelevant)
KY -2.5
IL + 12
MI + 6
WI - 4
Conclusion
What we have in the Industrial Midwest is a battleground region that isn't much of a battleground region. Kerry should easily take MI and IL, Bush IN, KY. That leaves two states, WI and OH that are the actual battleground. If it's a replay of 2000, the EC votes will be split 48 for Kerry, 39 Bush.
One last observation. We grow tired of the media repeating the misnomer that Democrats win the coasts and Republicans win the interior. Where the fuck are IL, MI, WI, IA, MN? Have they suddenly moved east or west? In 2000, Gore showed strength in just about every region. He massacred Bush in the Northeast, almost won (or won) Florida, split the Industrial Midwest (winning more Electoral College Votes than Bush in that region) showed some strength in NM and all but swept the Pacific Coast. That's a national party, baby.
