Friday, September 24, 2004
ELECTION ANALYSIS - PART IV - THE MIDWEST
Editors
Midway between the East and the West is the Midwest. We don't know why it isn't called the Mideast but we're glad it isn't. With few exceptions, we're in it deep here. Deep, dark red territory. Everything is bathed in a red haze. Be careful you don't burn your retinas.
STATES: 7 MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS
CLIENT STATE OF TEXAS: 1 OK
GORE: (2) MN, IA
BUSH: (2) MO, DAKOTAHOMA
ELECTORAL VOTES: Yes
PREDICTION: STATUS QUO
Minnesota
Will MN go for Kerry and keep its Democratic tradition alive? You Betcha! Despite the closeness of the 2000 results (Gore 47.91% to Bush's 45.50%) a few things stand out. First, The Dauphin's percentage of the vote in 2000 was actually less than his Poppa's in 1988 (45.9%). We'll give you three guess as to why MN was so close: No....No.....Yes! He Who Shall Not Be Named took 5.2% of the vote in 2000. Even figuring conservatively, if only half of those HWSNBN supporters voted for Gore, Gore is over 50% while The Dauphin is still in the mid-40's.
Here are a few reasons to believe MN is not a real battleground state. First, history. MN has gone Democratic in Presidential Elections since 1241 A.D. Secondly, MN has a high number of educated people, well over the national average. Hallucinogenic drug use is down since 2000. Finally, most polls have shown Kerry consistently ahead of Bush, though the spread varies. We think MN stays Blue.
Iowa
Iowa is an enigma, wrapped in a waffle, surrounded by a coat of chewy nugget.....Iowa is just plain weird. Dukakis carried IA easily, with 54% of the vote. Gore ran into problems and squeaked by 48.54 to 48.22. Oh, yeh, HWSNBN received 2.23%. Still, even giving Gore all of the Nader vote, it should not have been so close.
Iowa, even in its delusional days of staunch Republicanism, was a Dovish, anti-foreign entanglement type place. One has to wonder why Bush, who goes to war for no reason, is doing so well (and by well we mean running essentially even in polls). Still, at the end of the day, we think Kerry will get by here.
Missouri
Lets face it, MO is always tilts right of center. It may not be by much, but in any given year you have to give the Republicans a slight advantage. We think the numbers bear this out. Poppa took it by 4% points and Sonny took it by 3% points. Hardly a blow out, but it does show the state slightly askew to the right.
It is however, worth the fight. Some time, some money and maybe a little Edwards, and it will be competitive. At the very least, you want to make Bush spend mo money here.
Dakotahoma
Running from the Canadian border to Texas, Dakotahoma consists of several square states stacked upon one another, making it very tall. It is the only region of the country where there are more Electoral Votes (24) than people. A Democratic candidate, any Democratic candidate, must abandon hope of even being marginally competitive. An alter boy at a Bishop's convention has a better chance of leaving unmolested than Kerry has of breaking 45% in any of the states.
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Editors
Midway between the East and the West is the Midwest. We don't know why it isn't called the Mideast but we're glad it isn't. With few exceptions, we're in it deep here. Deep, dark red territory. Everything is bathed in a red haze. Be careful you don't burn your retinas.
STATES: 7 MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS
CLIENT STATE OF TEXAS: 1 OK
GORE: (2) MN, IA
BUSH: (2) MO, DAKOTAHOMA
ELECTORAL VOTES: Yes
PREDICTION: STATUS QUO
Minnesota
Will MN go for Kerry and keep its Democratic tradition alive? You Betcha! Despite the closeness of the 2000 results (Gore 47.91% to Bush's 45.50%) a few things stand out. First, The Dauphin's percentage of the vote in 2000 was actually less than his Poppa's in 1988 (45.9%). We'll give you three guess as to why MN was so close: No....No.....Yes! He Who Shall Not Be Named took 5.2% of the vote in 2000. Even figuring conservatively, if only half of those HWSNBN supporters voted for Gore, Gore is over 50% while The Dauphin is still in the mid-40's.
Here are a few reasons to believe MN is not a real battleground state. First, history. MN has gone Democratic in Presidential Elections since 1241 A.D. Secondly, MN has a high number of educated people, well over the national average. Hallucinogenic drug use is down since 2000. Finally, most polls have shown Kerry consistently ahead of Bush, though the spread varies. We think MN stays Blue.
Iowa
Iowa is an enigma, wrapped in a waffle, surrounded by a coat of chewy nugget.....Iowa is just plain weird. Dukakis carried IA easily, with 54% of the vote. Gore ran into problems and squeaked by 48.54 to 48.22. Oh, yeh, HWSNBN received 2.23%. Still, even giving Gore all of the Nader vote, it should not have been so close.
Iowa, even in its delusional days of staunch Republicanism, was a Dovish, anti-foreign entanglement type place. One has to wonder why Bush, who goes to war for no reason, is doing so well (and by well we mean running essentially even in polls). Still, at the end of the day, we think Kerry will get by here.
Missouri
Lets face it, MO is always tilts right of center. It may not be by much, but in any given year you have to give the Republicans a slight advantage. We think the numbers bear this out. Poppa took it by 4% points and Sonny took it by 3% points. Hardly a blow out, but it does show the state slightly askew to the right.
It is however, worth the fight. Some time, some money and maybe a little Edwards, and it will be competitive. At the very least, you want to make Bush spend mo money here.
Dakotahoma
Running from the Canadian border to Texas, Dakotahoma consists of several square states stacked upon one another, making it very tall. It is the only region of the country where there are more Electoral Votes (24) than people. A Democratic candidate, any Democratic candidate, must abandon hope of even being marginally competitive. An alter boy at a Bishop's convention has a better chance of leaving unmolested than Kerry has of breaking 45% in any of the states.
