Friday, September 24, 2004
PEP TALK
By Stockton
It is that time of the campaign season when Democrats begin their handwringing and plan their post-election recriminations. Kerry would have won if.....he should have done that....if only we had nominated Dean (god forbid).....Stop! Take a deep breath, exhale. There now, doesn't that feel good?
First, Kerry should run as if he is ten points behind. Polls and the campaign atmosphere can swing wildly over the course of not just a campaign, but the course of a week or two. Complacency is a killer and Kerry does have a track record of becoming complacent. I feel Kerry has hit a message and is hammering it home. Am I correct? Who the hell knows. Kerry may win and he may lose and sometimes these things depend on factors outside the control of any candidate.
Lets look at what Kerry, his supporters and anti-Bush people have accomplished. Bush starts with a distinct advantage; incumbency. The incumbent has several tools in his arsenal simply unavailable to the challenger. He can set the message, he is the President, he is the Commander-in-Chief, he has a National Press Corp hanging on his every word. This President has an allied Congress that can schedule votes to make him look good. Incumbency is a powerful campaign tool.
Bush had overwhelming support and popularity not very long ago. His approval numbers were higher than he was in the 1970's. Of course, those would drop out of the 80% range eventually, but they didn't have to drop to below 50%. A good leader and communicator could probably have held on to 10 of those points, giving him approval in the mid-50% range.
He is a candidate from the heartland. A faux shit-kicker that plays well in middle America. He starts with huge support in an Electoral Vote rich section of the country. Any Republican is going to start the election with over 200 Electoral Votes. Throw in Florida, and the candidate is a mere 37 Electoral Votes shy of victory. If he can nibble at the edges (OH, MO, NV,NH,WV) he'll win. And all experts agree that the EC favors Republicans.
Many like his personality even if they won't vote for him. Despite their efforts, the true Bush haters have yet to win that battle and won't. If 45% really dislike the guy, there is another 45% that like him. That image has been cast. The average Missourian, even those voting for Kerry, probably like Bush, personally. His image as a tough, straight-talking, resolute leader has taken hold. Polls show that 50%+ view him that way. It's not going to change much in the coming weeks.
We are, for lack of a precise term, at war. There is going to be a natural inclination to support a war-time president. It's an historic phenomenon.
Bush is the nominee of a united, highly disciplined national political party that has learned to hide its dirty laundry and back their man. Bush has buckets of money and the Republicans play dirty. They have the better spinmeisters. Bush and his team have been through a national election, a close one at that, before. Bush has built-in, universal name recognition.
The two most talked-about battleground states, Ohio and Florida are both controlled by Republican governors.
He is running against an aloof, liberal Senator from the dreaded Commonwealth of Massachusetts, home of Ted Kennedy, Barney Frank, the Red Sox and same-sex marriage. And yet...
And yet the race is essentially a dead heat. National polls and state polls swing here and there, but for all practical purposes, it's a dead heat. The once "very popular war-time President" is in a dead heat with Kerry. Kerry has not closed the deal with swing voters, but can anyone say Bush, who has had four years to do so, has sealed the deal? No.
Kerry has to stay on message, stay on the offense, act like a president and has to get the vote out. But, so does Bush.
Kerry may lose this race. His campaign, like all campaigns, has problems. However, given Bush's advantages as outlined above, Kerry is running a good campaign. Is there room for improvement? Of course. Does he lay down like Gore. No. This is not really a 'National Election'. It is more akin to 50 statewide elections. Many think the Democrats should go after Bush as a liar, a draft dodger, a war monger etc. That plays well, but only in those states already wrapped up by Kerry. Middle America has to be won and it is not won by calling Bush a draft dodger (which he is) or a cokehead (which he was). Middle America will be won when Kerry presents a sound alternative to the chaos of the last four years and by projecting himself as a strong leader. If he can accomplish that in the debates, the race may still remain close.
We should never give up hope. We should never become morosely despondent when Kerry is down in the polls. We should never become jubilant when he rises. It a marathon and wild mood swings are unproductive, hence pointless.
Kerry has a tough road from any perspective. That he is in the game is a tribute to the candidate and his supporters. Lets remember what's important: Lickin' Bush!
|
By Stockton
It is that time of the campaign season when Democrats begin their handwringing and plan their post-election recriminations. Kerry would have won if.....he should have done that....if only we had nominated Dean (god forbid).....Stop! Take a deep breath, exhale. There now, doesn't that feel good?
First, Kerry should run as if he is ten points behind. Polls and the campaign atmosphere can swing wildly over the course of not just a campaign, but the course of a week or two. Complacency is a killer and Kerry does have a track record of becoming complacent. I feel Kerry has hit a message and is hammering it home. Am I correct? Who the hell knows. Kerry may win and he may lose and sometimes these things depend on factors outside the control of any candidate.
Lets look at what Kerry, his supporters and anti-Bush people have accomplished. Bush starts with a distinct advantage; incumbency. The incumbent has several tools in his arsenal simply unavailable to the challenger. He can set the message, he is the President, he is the Commander-in-Chief, he has a National Press Corp hanging on his every word. This President has an allied Congress that can schedule votes to make him look good. Incumbency is a powerful campaign tool.
Bush had overwhelming support and popularity not very long ago. His approval numbers were higher than he was in the 1970's. Of course, those would drop out of the 80% range eventually, but they didn't have to drop to below 50%. A good leader and communicator could probably have held on to 10 of those points, giving him approval in the mid-50% range.
He is a candidate from the heartland. A faux shit-kicker that plays well in middle America. He starts with huge support in an Electoral Vote rich section of the country. Any Republican is going to start the election with over 200 Electoral Votes. Throw in Florida, and the candidate is a mere 37 Electoral Votes shy of victory. If he can nibble at the edges (OH, MO, NV,NH,WV) he'll win. And all experts agree that the EC favors Republicans.
Many like his personality even if they won't vote for him. Despite their efforts, the true Bush haters have yet to win that battle and won't. If 45% really dislike the guy, there is another 45% that like him. That image has been cast. The average Missourian, even those voting for Kerry, probably like Bush, personally. His image as a tough, straight-talking, resolute leader has taken hold. Polls show that 50%+ view him that way. It's not going to change much in the coming weeks.
We are, for lack of a precise term, at war. There is going to be a natural inclination to support a war-time president. It's an historic phenomenon.
Bush is the nominee of a united, highly disciplined national political party that has learned to hide its dirty laundry and back their man. Bush has buckets of money and the Republicans play dirty. They have the better spinmeisters. Bush and his team have been through a national election, a close one at that, before. Bush has built-in, universal name recognition.
The two most talked-about battleground states, Ohio and Florida are both controlled by Republican governors.
He is running against an aloof, liberal Senator from the dreaded Commonwealth of Massachusetts, home of Ted Kennedy, Barney Frank, the Red Sox and same-sex marriage. And yet...
And yet the race is essentially a dead heat. National polls and state polls swing here and there, but for all practical purposes, it's a dead heat. The once "very popular war-time President" is in a dead heat with Kerry. Kerry has not closed the deal with swing voters, but can anyone say Bush, who has had four years to do so, has sealed the deal? No.
Kerry has to stay on message, stay on the offense, act like a president and has to get the vote out. But, so does Bush.
Kerry may lose this race. His campaign, like all campaigns, has problems. However, given Bush's advantages as outlined above, Kerry is running a good campaign. Is there room for improvement? Of course. Does he lay down like Gore. No. This is not really a 'National Election'. It is more akin to 50 statewide elections. Many think the Democrats should go after Bush as a liar, a draft dodger, a war monger etc. That plays well, but only in those states already wrapped up by Kerry. Middle America has to be won and it is not won by calling Bush a draft dodger (which he is) or a cokehead (which he was). Middle America will be won when Kerry presents a sound alternative to the chaos of the last four years and by projecting himself as a strong leader. If he can accomplish that in the debates, the race may still remain close.
We should never give up hope. We should never become morosely despondent when Kerry is down in the polls. We should never become jubilant when he rises. It a marathon and wild mood swings are unproductive, hence pointless.
Kerry has a tough road from any perspective. That he is in the game is a tribute to the candidate and his supporters. Lets remember what's important: Lickin' Bush!
