Saturday, September 11, 2004
A TIME TO CHILL
Editorial
OK, all you democrats out there, it's time to chill.
Stockton and Tweed have noted a touch of hysteria out in blog world and the real world regarding the status of the presidential race. CALM DOWN.
Kerry is doing just fine. Could he do better? Yes. Could he do worse? Yes. Could Bush be doing worse? Could he do better? Hell yes!
Let's look at some current polling data, shall we?
Pennsylvania: Kerry has gone up and down in Pennsylvania - frequently over 50%. Bush's "gains" there have been marginal at best. He's about as close to 50% as he's going to get. After the convention, Bush's numbers went up slightly, and Kerry dropped a lot. But Kerry is moving back up. Pennsylvania looks a lot like it did in 2000.
Ohio: Kerry and Bush have been trading the lead here. The convention gave Bush a bounce, but it looks like it's evening out again.
Virginia: OK. Stop and think for a minute. I'm about to talk about Virginia in a presidential race. Kerry won't win, most likely. But he's doing much better than expected. He's actually moved up in the polls since the RNC convention.
North Carolina: See Virginia. But Kerry has less of a chance for a win.
Florida: Bush got a bounce. But he's polled better there. It is still neck and neck.
Iowa: Bush got a slight bounce - and Kerry is pulling away.
Wisconsin: Closer than we'd like, but Kerry still has the edge. Bush has not yet polled 50% there - even with the convention bounce.
Michigan: Not a battleground. Michigan is Kerry's.
Minnesota: See Michigan.
Missouri: The convention sent Bush soaring and Kerry tumbling. But it looks like its narrowing again. The last poll has the candidates 2 points apart.
Arkansas: No bounce for Bush. It is close - Kerry could pull it out.
Colorado: Closer than it should be for Bush. No convention bounce for the president.
Nevada: Bounce for Bush, but not too much. Kerry is very competative here.
New York: Bush's bounce got him to 37%.
Oregon: Kerry is slipping a little. But Bush still trails him by a lot.
California: Bush got a bounce that brought him above 45%. But three polls since then have him below 45%.
West Virginia: It is slipping away from Kerry.
In sum. The race remains substantially the same as it was prior to the conventions.
Don't be democrats right now. Don't be so pessimistic. Don't be so reflective and introspective. This campaign is winnable, and our candidate is doing alright.
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Editorial
OK, all you democrats out there, it's time to chill.
Stockton and Tweed have noted a touch of hysteria out in blog world and the real world regarding the status of the presidential race. CALM DOWN.
Kerry is doing just fine. Could he do better? Yes. Could he do worse? Yes. Could Bush be doing worse? Could he do better? Hell yes!
Let's look at some current polling data, shall we?
Pennsylvania: Kerry has gone up and down in Pennsylvania - frequently over 50%. Bush's "gains" there have been marginal at best. He's about as close to 50% as he's going to get. After the convention, Bush's numbers went up slightly, and Kerry dropped a lot. But Kerry is moving back up. Pennsylvania looks a lot like it did in 2000.
Ohio: Kerry and Bush have been trading the lead here. The convention gave Bush a bounce, but it looks like it's evening out again.
Virginia: OK. Stop and think for a minute. I'm about to talk about Virginia in a presidential race. Kerry won't win, most likely. But he's doing much better than expected. He's actually moved up in the polls since the RNC convention.
North Carolina: See Virginia. But Kerry has less of a chance for a win.
Florida: Bush got a bounce. But he's polled better there. It is still neck and neck.
Iowa: Bush got a slight bounce - and Kerry is pulling away.
Wisconsin: Closer than we'd like, but Kerry still has the edge. Bush has not yet polled 50% there - even with the convention bounce.
Michigan: Not a battleground. Michigan is Kerry's.
Minnesota: See Michigan.
Missouri: The convention sent Bush soaring and Kerry tumbling. But it looks like its narrowing again. The last poll has the candidates 2 points apart.
Arkansas: No bounce for Bush. It is close - Kerry could pull it out.
Colorado: Closer than it should be for Bush. No convention bounce for the president.
Nevada: Bounce for Bush, but not too much. Kerry is very competative here.
New York: Bush's bounce got him to 37%.
Oregon: Kerry is slipping a little. But Bush still trails him by a lot.
California: Bush got a bounce that brought him above 45%. But three polls since then have him below 45%.
West Virginia: It is slipping away from Kerry.
In sum. The race remains substantially the same as it was prior to the conventions.
Don't be democrats right now. Don't be so pessimistic. Don't be so reflective and introspective. This campaign is winnable, and our candidate is doing alright.
