Tuesday, October 19, 2004
THE STATE OF THE RACE - OCTOBER 19, 2004
Editorial
Stockton's take
Rarely is the question asked, where does the Presidential Race stand on October 19, 2004? It's lucky you tuned in to LB in '04 because we have the answer.
As of today, John Kerry needs 270 Electoral Votes to be President of the United States. Coincidentally, George Bush needs the same number of Electoral Votes. That must have taken years of planning.
The Popular Vote
Polls indicate the popular vote is a dead heat. Kerry up by 2, Bush up by 3, tied, Kerry down 1. With margins of error in the 4.5% range, these are relatively meaningless. Add to that the fact that there is tremendous interest in this election and voter registration is up, the national polls become even more meaningless. Don't get too excited if Kerry's up or too despondent when Kerry's down.
Further, the presidential race is not a national race; it's 50 state races. In theory, a candidate could win the White House by getting one more vote in 17 or 18 states than the other candidate while getting no votes in the remaining states. We exaggerate to make a point. This is math. That's all it is, with 270 being the magic number.
What Has to Happen for the Forces of Good to Prevail?
We're glad you asked. Lets start with the proposition that Kerry has the Gore States and Bush the Bush states. Kerry needs to scrape up 10 more EC's. The most obvious strategy is to fight for Florida and Ohio. A win in one will put him over the top.
But wait! Kerry, you say, hasn't pinned down all the Gore states. Battlegrounds include WI, MN, NM, IA. First of all, if you really think Bush can take MN, you should go home now. There is no way that Kerry is going to win FL and/or OH and not take MN.
Now, take a deep breath and relax. The states Kerry will carry (and you can bank this) are:
ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY,MD, DC, DE, IL, WA, OR, HI, CA =175 ECV's
That's my extremely conservative prognosis. I say that because I have no doubt that Kerry will win the four states that follow. However, lets be cautious. Kerry will very likely win the following:
PA, MN, NJ, MI =238 ECV's
So, the magic number is 32. Just where do we find these elusive 32 Electoral College votes. Unlike Republicans, we can't steal them so we'll have to earn them. The obvious place to mine these votes is OH and FL. Duh! Taking both OH and FL puts Kerry well over the top (286 ECV's). But we can't count on Kerry taking all the biggest states (minus TX) in such a supposedly close election.
If Kerry takes FL, he'll have 265 ECV's, 5 shy of our magic number. Taking FL is the best scenerio because any number of states will put him over the top; WI, IA, NM, NV, WV.
If Kerry loses FL and takes OH, he'll be at 259 ECV's. Realistically, he'll need two more states. WI + any state (IA, NM, NV, WV) or IA + any state (WI, NM, NV, WV).
But what happens if Kerry loses OH and FL? Is it over? Realistically, yes. If that happens, it's Hail Mary time. Kerry supporters will have to hope for WI, IA, NM, NV, WV. That's a lot of hoping in such a close contest. And lets be realistic: WV is going for Bush. Therefore, Kerry must carry FL or OH.
The Most Important State
This brings us to what I consider the most important state: NH. Little New Hampshire with four Electoral Votes. Why is it so important? Because of ME. Under these scenerios, we have Kerry winning when he wins certain states. If those combinations of states add up to 270, Kerry may still lose. One of Maine's ECV's may go to Bush due to the way ME divides ECV's. So, if your just using the EC map and looking at states, two things become apparent. If you're giving Kerry all of ME's 4 ECV's and coming up with 270 ECV's, he will lose if Bush splits the ME vote. It's not certain that Bush will gain that single ECV, but it's something to look for.
NH becomes important if Kerry wins FL but loses IA and WI. If that happens, he'll need to win either NV or NM, both real possibilities. Still, that only gets him to 269 votes (subtracting 1 vote from ME). NH can be the trump card, giving him 273 ECV's.
If Kerry wins OH and WI, NH puts him over the top. If Kerry wins OH and IA, NH + either NV or NM puts him over the top. These are all realistic scenerios.
Kerry will not win AR, CO, VA, AZ. If those states play in your conception of a Kerry win, you're hanging on a wing and a prayer. I also believe, no matter how close MO seems, ultimately it will tip to Bush.
Conclusion
If, on election night, you see NH going to Kerry (which I believe will happen), he's very much in the game. If he takes FL or OH, he's looking good. If he takes both, run outside and howl at the moon (something I usually do but will now have a reason for doing).
If Kerry loses NH, OH, FL, only the Kool-Aid drinkers will believe the long national nightmare could still be ending. Could Kerry lose all three and still win? Yes. Anything is possible. Little George Bush's might fly out of my ass tomorrow, but I'm not betting on it.
Personally, I'd watch NH and OH. I have a hard time believing that Kerry will win NH and OH and lose IA and Wisconsin.
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Editorial
Stockton's take
Rarely is the question asked, where does the Presidential Race stand on October 19, 2004? It's lucky you tuned in to LB in '04 because we have the answer.
As of today, John Kerry needs 270 Electoral Votes to be President of the United States. Coincidentally, George Bush needs the same number of Electoral Votes. That must have taken years of planning.
The Popular Vote
Polls indicate the popular vote is a dead heat. Kerry up by 2, Bush up by 3, tied, Kerry down 1. With margins of error in the 4.5% range, these are relatively meaningless. Add to that the fact that there is tremendous interest in this election and voter registration is up, the national polls become even more meaningless. Don't get too excited if Kerry's up or too despondent when Kerry's down.
Further, the presidential race is not a national race; it's 50 state races. In theory, a candidate could win the White House by getting one more vote in 17 or 18 states than the other candidate while getting no votes in the remaining states. We exaggerate to make a point. This is math. That's all it is, with 270 being the magic number.
What Has to Happen for the Forces of Good to Prevail?
We're glad you asked. Lets start with the proposition that Kerry has the Gore States and Bush the Bush states. Kerry needs to scrape up 10 more EC's. The most obvious strategy is to fight for Florida and Ohio. A win in one will put him over the top.
But wait! Kerry, you say, hasn't pinned down all the Gore states. Battlegrounds include WI, MN, NM, IA. First of all, if you really think Bush can take MN, you should go home now. There is no way that Kerry is going to win FL and/or OH and not take MN.
Now, take a deep breath and relax. The states Kerry will carry (and you can bank this) are:
ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY,MD, DC, DE, IL, WA, OR, HI, CA =175 ECV's
That's my extremely conservative prognosis. I say that because I have no doubt that Kerry will win the four states that follow. However, lets be cautious. Kerry will very likely win the following:
PA, MN, NJ, MI =238 ECV's
So, the magic number is 32. Just where do we find these elusive 32 Electoral College votes. Unlike Republicans, we can't steal them so we'll have to earn them. The obvious place to mine these votes is OH and FL. Duh! Taking both OH and FL puts Kerry well over the top (286 ECV's). But we can't count on Kerry taking all the biggest states (minus TX) in such a supposedly close election.
If Kerry takes FL, he'll have 265 ECV's, 5 shy of our magic number. Taking FL is the best scenerio because any number of states will put him over the top; WI, IA, NM, NV, WV.
If Kerry loses FL and takes OH, he'll be at 259 ECV's. Realistically, he'll need two more states. WI + any state (IA, NM, NV, WV) or IA + any state (WI, NM, NV, WV).
But what happens if Kerry loses OH and FL? Is it over? Realistically, yes. If that happens, it's Hail Mary time. Kerry supporters will have to hope for WI, IA, NM, NV, WV. That's a lot of hoping in such a close contest. And lets be realistic: WV is going for Bush. Therefore, Kerry must carry FL or OH.
The Most Important State
This brings us to what I consider the most important state: NH. Little New Hampshire with four Electoral Votes. Why is it so important? Because of ME. Under these scenerios, we have Kerry winning when he wins certain states. If those combinations of states add up to 270, Kerry may still lose. One of Maine's ECV's may go to Bush due to the way ME divides ECV's. So, if your just using the EC map and looking at states, two things become apparent. If you're giving Kerry all of ME's 4 ECV's and coming up with 270 ECV's, he will lose if Bush splits the ME vote. It's not certain that Bush will gain that single ECV, but it's something to look for.
NH becomes important if Kerry wins FL but loses IA and WI. If that happens, he'll need to win either NV or NM, both real possibilities. Still, that only gets him to 269 votes (subtracting 1 vote from ME). NH can be the trump card, giving him 273 ECV's.
If Kerry wins OH and WI, NH puts him over the top. If Kerry wins OH and IA, NH + either NV or NM puts him over the top. These are all realistic scenerios.
Kerry will not win AR, CO, VA, AZ. If those states play in your conception of a Kerry win, you're hanging on a wing and a prayer. I also believe, no matter how close MO seems, ultimately it will tip to Bush.
Conclusion
If, on election night, you see NH going to Kerry (which I believe will happen), he's very much in the game. If he takes FL or OH, he's looking good. If he takes both, run outside and howl at the moon (something I usually do but will now have a reason for doing).
If Kerry loses NH, OH, FL, only the Kool-Aid drinkers will believe the long national nightmare could still be ending. Could Kerry lose all three and still win? Yes. Anything is possible. Little George Bush's might fly out of my ass tomorrow, but I'm not betting on it.
Personally, I'd watch NH and OH. I have a hard time believing that Kerry will win NH and OH and lose IA and Wisconsin.
