Wednesday, October 20, 2004
By Tweed (thought it would be Stockton, didn't you)
Holy Moly! It looks like we got a close one.
But maybe not. Early voting indicates that first time voters and independents are breaking heavily for Kerry. Could it be that disputed ballots in FL won't matter? NO! Because there will be dipsuted ballots in Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Oregon as well!
But perhaps not.
First, let's look at the
National Polls
As readers of LB in 04' will know, the national polls have little bearing on the race compared to the sexual proclivities of the contestants. Nonetheless, the national polls tell us some things.
In 2000, Al Gore trailed Dubya leading up to the election:
Nov.1: Bush 46%, Gore 41%; Bush 48%, Gore 46% Bush 45%, Gore 38%; Bush 48%, Gore 43%; Bush 46.7%, Gore 41.4%
Nov. 2: Bush 45%, Gore 42%; Bush 46.8%, Gore 41.8%; Bush 45%, Gore 40%; Bush 44%, Gore 43%; Bush 47%, Gore 43%
Nov. 3: Bush 45%, Gore 42%; Bush 46.4%, Gore 42.5%; Bush 49%, Gore 45%; Bush 46%, Gore 39%; Bush 48%, Gore 42%
Nov. 4: Bush 46%, Gore 42%; Bush 48%, Gore 45%; Bush 46%, Gore 37%; Bush 43%, Gore 43% (Fox News, interestingly enough); Bush 47%, Gore 43%
Nov. 5 (Sunday before Election Day): Bush 48%, Gore 43%; Bush 49%, Gore 45%; Bush 48%, Gore 41.2%; Bush 46%, Gore 44%; Bush 47%, Gore 43%; Bush 48%, Gore 45%; Bush 47%, Gore 44%; Bush 46%, Gore 44%; Bush 46%, Gore 37%; Gore 44%, Bush 41%
Only one poll of these had Gore winning the national vote - which is what Gore did. This indicates that the national polls in 2000 (most within the margin of error) gave us a pretty good take on the election - if you assume they undercounted democratic votes.
This probably holds true these days as well. In addition, Kerry has a few other factors turning his way: First, the democratic base is energized - they want to see Bush gone. Second, while a large portion of the republican base is energized (the moron wing), the socially moderate and fiscally conservative republicans (i.e. Ohians and New Hampshirites and Iowavites) probably could think of many other people they'd vote for over Bush. Third, democrats have beaten republicans in voter registration drives the last few years. (There are contrasting views on this point. A detailed NYT investigation showed the democrats had out registered republicans in Ohio and Florida by huge amounts. Today's Washington Post indicates democratic gains are not as strong as once thought.) Fourth, the independents will break for Kerry - it's tradition, and polling of early voters bears this out. Fifth, Kerry is taller than Bush. Sixth, new voters are breaking for Kerry. And finally, Bush has alienated some key constituencies from 2000.
But, as we know, a candidate can win the popular vote and lose the election (or, if you're Al Gore, win the popular vote, win the election, and watch helplessly as Antonin Scalia & Co., elevate the dimwit to the highest office in the world).
First, let's turn to
The Easy Ones
Even though this race is one of the closest we've seen in years, and the polling data is inconclusive, at best, there are some pretty easy picks:
Bush gets:
The Heart of the Confederacy: SC (8), GA (15), AL (9) and MS (6) = 38 EVs
The Republic of Texas: TX (34) and OK (7) = 41 EVs (79)
The States of Grass: KS (6), NE (5), SD (3) and ND (3) = 17 EVs (96)
Mountain States (Where the Men are Men and the Sheep are Nervous): WY (3), MT (3), ID (4) and UT (5) = 15 EVs (111)
Alaska = 3 EVs (114)
Finally, Bush gets Intuckysee = 30EVs
So, Bush starts off with a no doubt, 144EVs
Kerry gets:
California: 55 EVs
Illinois: 21 EVs
The Northeast Corridor: DC (3), MD (10), DE (3), NY (33), CT (7), RI (4), MA (12) and VT (3)
HI (4)
So, Kerry starts off with a no doubt 153 EVs
"But Tweed," you may proclaim, "isn't Louisiana a no-brainer for Bush - and what about Oregon and Washington - don't they belong to Kerry." "Absolutely," I would reply, "but it's so much more fun to drag these things out a little."
So let's take a look at the
Faux Swing-States
For Bush:
The South: NC (15), VA (13), WV (5) and LA (9) = 42 EVs
Arizona: 10 EVs
So, Bush gets another 52 EVs giving him a total of 196
For Kerry:
The Northeast: ME (4) and NJ (15) = 19 EVs
The North: MI (17) and MN (10) = 27 EVs
The Northwest: WA (11) and OR (7) = 18 EVs
So, Kerry gets another 64 EVs giving him a total of 217
This leaves us with
The Battleground States:
NH (4): A traditionally republican state that probably would have given the election to Gore if it hadn't been for The One Who Must Not Be Named. Kerry led in the polls early and has seemed to have regained his lead over Bush, who is behind in 3 of the 5 most recent polls (which include 1 tie). Northeastern republicans are becoming an endangered species, and it is doubtful the republicans will be able to hold onto NH in 2004. Kerry 221
PA (21): Polls be damned. In 2000, Gore led consistently by about 2% in the polls in PA; he ended up winning 50.6% to 46.4% with Nader picking up most of the rest. Kerry is showing even greater strength than Gore, and has a Democratic governor and billionare wife in PA. Large voter turnout, which is likely, will favor Kerry. This is Kerry's state. Kerry 242
OH (20): Ohio is the midwestern version of NH. The republicans here are fiscally conservative and a bit squeemish when it comes to legislating morality. OH has been hit hard by the economic downturn, and Edwards' "two Americas" message rings true in OH. Polls indicate that this is a true battleground state, but Kerry has been doing well in October. In addition, massive voter registration drives by Democrats in OH have far surpassed Republican efforts. Bush beat Gore by about 3.5% - and Gore gave up on the state a couple of weeks before the election. OH could be the scene of poll access problems, vote fraud and any other number of "irregularities." Nonetheless, large voter turnout, with independents and first-time voters turning to Kerry result in a Kerry win here. Kerry 262
FL (27): Like OH, a true battleground. The polls here are miraculously close, giving neither candidate an edge. Kerry gets to battle two Bushes in FL; but the Bush boys have to battle the anger of lots of voters in FL who believe that their votes didn't count in 2000. FL will be ugly (and by current reports, it already is). I believe the forces of goodness and light will ride the backs of voters in a massive voter turnout that gives Kerry a very slight edge. Kerry 289
WI (10): Who'da'thunkit? WI a battleground. Don't be so sure. The lack of the Nader factor, and large turnout help Kerry here. He'll win with room to spare. The polls are pulling his way as well. Kerry 299
IA (7): Too close than it should be. IA is a battleground, like FL and OH. But with independents breaking against the incumbent, good turnout and the effects of pretty good registration efforts by the Democrats give Kerry a slight edge. Kerry 306
MO (11): MO is returning to its status as a bellweather state. Polls show this race closer than Bush should like, and Kerry's not even running there. Even a large Kerry effort won't pull away Bush's support here, though. Bush has polled above 50% plenty of times here (unlike in FL, OH, WI and IA), and Kerry has not. This red state stays red. Bush 207
AR (6): An effort by the big dog would have put AR over the edge for Kerry long ago. As it is, some polls put this one neck and neck. A large voter turnout will help Kerry here, and although it will be close, I think Bush hangs on. Bush 213
CO (9): CO is an odd place - almost a western version of NH. Salazar will help Kerry here, but I can't believe it will be enough to put him over the top. Only a few polls put Kerry close, and while a big turnout will help also, Bush keeps this state. Bush 222 (Don't ask about the apportionment issue.)
NM (5): I don't buy that this is as close as some polls are putting it. Kerry wins, but not too comfortably. Kerry 311
NV (5): Yucca Mountain; unions. Kerry squeeks by Bush on the backs of a big turnout and Bush voters not being all that excited. Kerry 316
Kerry wins the popular vote by >1.5 million.
Tweed drinks a bottle of $200 champaigne with his New Zealand neighbor.
